Ten Years Since the Referendum: When Will Scotland Get Another Chance at Independence?
By Beatrice Ehrhardt
This past September of 2024 marked ten years since the referendum on Scottish independence. In 2014, a historic number flocked to the polls to have their say in the future of Scotland. With the highest voter turnout since universal suffrage, independence clearly was and still is a central issue for the people of Scotland. While not enough to secure independence in 2014, support has grown and been consistent in the past decade since the referendum, so what is preventing a ‘Yes’ vote now?
In 2011, Scotland voted to secure power for the Scottish National Party (SNP) with 69 Members of the Scottish Parliament (MSPs) claiming a seat – 4 more than necessary to obtain a majority. The SNP has long been Scotland’s champion of independence, fighting for a "better, fairer, greener, wealthier Scotland”. Widespread support for this party signaled a desire for change, and former First Minister and SNP leader Nicola Sturgeon pushed for a referendum to allow Scotland the opportunity to decide on its future as a part of the United Kingdom. Despite sweeping SNP support, a resulting ‘No’ vote of 55% temporarily settled the question of independence. Much has changed since this vote was made, however.
In 2016, the people of Scotland largely rejected the UK’s exit from the European Union by a margin of 24%, with 62% voting to remain a part of the EU, making clear Scotland’s position on Brexit. While respecting the results of the EU exit referendum, Scotland sought to engage constructively with the UK government on the terms of transition. The Scottish government holds that despite efforts to negotiate the terms, the UK government adopted its position without working jointly to incorporate the interests and policy priorities of other devolved governments or allowing them the opportunity to influence the negotiation principles. The Joint Ministerial Committee on EU Negotiations, or JMC(EN), although having met 28 times, ultimately failed at its objective to give devolved administrations a voice. Scotland clearly set out policy positions regarding replacement EU funding, energy and climate change, international security, and more, yet none of these were reflected in the negotiations.
Furthermore, according to Constitution Secretary Michael Russell, the UK government’s approach following the 2016 Brexit decision has been a “systemic attack” on devolution and has resulted in greater centralization in Westminster. In what has been the most significant “assault” on devolution yet, the UK Internal Market Act of 2020 was signed into law despite Scottish refusal, putting restraints on the powers of the Scottish Parliament without its consent. It has allowed the UK government to legislate in devolved policy areas regarding food, health, and environmental standards and has given UK ministers power to spend without oversight by the Scottish Parliament in areas that were also previously devolved. This is a complete disregard of the Sewel Convention, a constitutional rule stating that the UK Parliament will not normally legislate on devolved matters without the Scottish Parliament having passed a legislative consent motion.
Devolution has allowed the Scottish people to elect their own government and take control over decisions made for Scotland, but, as Russell claims, it is slowly being reversed under the cover of Brexit. The result of the 2014 independence referendum was a decision made prior to UK exit from the European Union and the attacks made on the Scottish Parliament’s devolved powers. Scotland’s support for rejoining the EU has only grown since the decision made in 2016, with the most recent poll in 2022 showing a decisive 40% margin in favor of remain. With this attack on devolution and autonomy, the Scottish government continues to hold its position that Scotland should be an independent country, but the next referendum may not be in the near future.
The UK Supreme Court ruled in November of 2022 that the Scottish government does not have the power to legislate for a referendum. Lord Reed claimed that the laws that created the Scottish Parliament in 1999 did not give it the power to legislate on the constitution, including on matters such as the Union between Scotland and England. This blocked the SNP’s plans for a second referendum, ‘indyref2’, as former Prime Minister Boris Johnson refused Sturgeon’s request for a section 30 order – referring to the section of the Scotland Act that allows Holyrood to legislate in areas normally reserved to Westminster. Johnson suggested that it should be a “once-in-a-generation" vote and hinted at about a 40-year gap until the next one could happen.
Some believe that Scotland is ready for another vote. With the resurgence of the Labour Party in the recent UK election, however, support for the SNP may be waning and independence, although not forgotten, put on the back burner. The SNP made clear its intentions that victory in the election would mean a “de facto referendum”. That proved to be less than convincing, however, as voters have admitted that while hopeful of independence at some point in the future, there are “so many other things to solve” at this time, including high prices and the current state of public services like the NHS. The Labour Manifesto addresses the attack on devolution and details the party’s plans to strengthen the Sewel Convention with a “new memorandum of understanding” and improve collaboration between the UK government and devolved institutions. While a second referendum on Scottish independence is likely inevitable, the question of when still stands. The Scottish election in 2026 will be telling, however, of how hopeful Scotland is of a second independence referendum – will Labour keep its majority, or will the SNP reclaim its support?
