Drones in Ukraine: A Revolution in Warfare
By Sahib Singh
In the initial phase of the Ukraine war, combat consisted of uncoordinated skirmishes with limited strategic use of technology. However, as the conflict has progressed, it has evolved into a battleground for intricate and sophisticated drone dogfight strategies. These developments mark a significant shift in modern warfare, where drones are not merely supplementary tools but pivotal elements of military tactics. While drone technology has been a key component in 21st-century conflicts worldwide, the Russia-Ukraine war is pushing the boundaries of autonomous warfare in ways that have not been seen on other battlefields. This conflict is driving innovative uses of drones, showcasing their potential to change the dynamics of war through enhanced precision, autonomy, and tactical effectiveness.
At the onset of the conflict, Ukraine extensively utilized larger drones such as the Turkish TB2 Bayraktar due to the relatively underdeveloped state of Russia's air defense and electronic warfare systems. The TB2's militaristic capabilities enabled Ukrainian forces to rapidly defend and progress against initial Russian attacks. However, as Russia bolstered its air control and enhanced its ability to detect and intercept drones, Ukraine shifted its strategy towards deploying smaller, more agile non-conventional warfare drones.
These smaller drones have become critical assets, enhancing Ukraine's volume of small-scale attacks on individual targets. Leveraging commercial markets, Ukraine has swiftly integrated inexpensive, off-the-shelf drones into its military operations. Many of these small drones, often sourced through public crowdfunding or "dronations," cost around one thousand dollars each. They can be quickly assembled and implemented across an array of missions. For instance, first-person view (FPV) drones, commonly used for recreational filmmaking, have been modified with improvised explosives to execute low-cost, high-precision strikes on fixed targets. These drones are not only effective in single-use missions but also evade Russian air defense systems more easily. Ukrainian forces are also using cardboard drones, manufactured in Australia, and known as the “origami of death”. These drones, shipped unassembled, are put together in battlefields and deployed within hours. Besides imports, Ukraine is also increasing domestic production. From just seven domestic drone manufacturers a year ago, Ukraine has multiplied production by more than tenfold.
In contrast, Russia relies on its indigenous drone models such as the large-scale traditional Orion drone. However, Western sanctions have disrupted critical supply chains, limiting Russia's drone production capabilities. Russia has consequently turned to Iran for Shahed-136 drones; now a significant part of Russia's fleet, they can carry 100 pounds (45.4 kilograms) of explosives over a distance of 1,200 miles (1,931 kilometers). Unlike US drones, the use of which made popular in the War on Terror, these Iranian produced UAVs are significantly smaller and cheaper. With payloads delivered in a “kamikaze” fashion, Shahid-136 drones have significantly smaller payloads than most American drones. Nonetheless, these drones are relatively equivalent to those being used in a similar fashion by Ukraine. While effective, this reliance on foreign (Iranian) sources underscores Russia's challenges in sustaining its drone warfare capabilities independently.
As technology continues to advance, the future of drone warfare promises to be even more transformative, introducing new dimensions to military strategy and tactics. One of the most significant hypothesized developments is the implementation of swarming technology. Swarm drones involve deploying large numbers of small, interconnected drones that can communicate and coordinate with each other to perform complex tasks. These drone swarms can overwhelm enemy defenses, conduct surveillance, and execute precise strikes. The ability to deploy hundreds or thousands of drones simultaneously could significantly enhance a military's offensive and defensive capabilities, making it difficult for adversaries to counter. The Ukrainian government’s pledge to manufacture over one million FPV-drones in 2024 further demonstrates this shift.
Autonomous drones represent another major leap forward. With improvements in artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning algorithms, drones will become increasingly capable of conducting missions independently, with minimal human intervention. Future drones could autonomously identify and engage targets, navigate complex environments, and adapt to changing conditions in real-time. This autonomy reduces the need for remote human pilots and operators, decreasing the risk to military personnel and increasing operational efficiency. Nonetheless, automation poses immense risks in any war environment- the removal of human authorization in any capacity can lead to error and misjudgement. In the case of Ukraine, warfare which is fought on such local fields-of-view benefits greatly from human decision making and guidance.
Stealth and counter-stealth technologies will play a crucial role in the evolution of drone warfare. Future drones will likely incorporate advanced stealth technologies to evade detection by enemy radar and electronic warfare systems. These drones could be designed with innovative materials and shapes, making them harder to detect and intercept. Conversely, counter-stealth technologies will also advance, leading to an ongoing technological arms race between stealthy drones and detection systems.
Cyber warfare integration is another prospect for the future of drones. Equipped with sophisticated hacking tools, drones could be used to infiltrate enemy networks, disrupt communications, and disable critical infrastructure. This integration of physical and cyber capabilities would create a new hybrid form of warfare, where drones not only conduct kinetic operations but also engage in electronic and cyber-attacks. This technology is becoming increasingly prevalent, especially in electronic warfare. Electronic warfare in Ukraine consists of Ukrainian forces using drones to electronically jam Russian communication and radar devices.
Drones are also set to revolutionize military logistics by providing rapid and efficient delivery of supplies, ammunition, and medical aid to frontline troops. As done effectively with blood deliveries in Rwanda, the existing implementation of drones for transport could realistically translate into warfare settings. Autonomous cargo drones could navigate through hostile environments to ensure timely resupply, reducing the logistical burden on traditional transport methods and improving the resilience of supply chains in contested areas.
Finally, the integration of drones into a network-centric warfare approach will become more pronounced. Drones will operate as part of a larger, interconnected system of sensors, communication nodes, and weapon platforms. This interoperability will enable real-time data sharing and coordinated actions across different military branches and allied forces, enhancing situational awareness and decision-making.
The future of drone warfare is likely to be characterized by increased autonomy, advanced technologies, and integration into broader military strategies. As these innovations unfold, they will reshape the nature of conflict and necessitate new approaches to defense and security. The war in Ukraine acts as a precursor for such developments, and its use as a paragon for the evolution of war will become essential.
