90 Seconds to Midnight
By Todd Meltzer
Introduction
In early 2024, The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists set the Doomsday Clock to 90 seconds to midnight, marking the closest approach to nuclear war since the Cuban Missile Crisis. The Doomsday Clock created in 1947, was made to determine how close humanity was to its own destruction, mainly by nuclear weapons. The nearest the clock had ever been to midnight before this was 17 minutes to midnight in 1991 after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the creation and signing of the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty. Over two years have passed since Russia invaded Ukraine, and tensions are indisputably increasing and elements of the Cold War are resurfacing.
U.S. Weapon Transfers to Ukraine
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Ukraine has fought to defend its sovereignty with the help of the United States. Since 2022, the United States has provided Ukraine with more than $100 billion in aid for its defense. Recently, the United States Congress passed a $95 billion foreign aid package, which included $61 billion in aid to Ukraine. This aid encompassed long-range ballistic missiles capable of reaching deeper into Russian territory, which Ukrainian officials had requested but had not yet received permission to use on Russian territory. According to NBC News, Ukraine has already used these long-range missiles twice from a $300 million military aid package that the U.S. revealed on March 12th. Additionally, NBC writes that these missiles have "a range up to 300 kilometers" and can target "throughout Crimea and in occupied parts of eastern Ukraine," areas that the Ukrainian Armed Forces have found difficult to reach. Although U.S. officials warned Ukraine not to strike within Crimea, Ukraine proceeded to do so anyway, though not with U.S. weapons. “The first strike occurred about 100 miles inside Crimea’s border on the morning of April 17,” NBC reports. As mentioned previously, Putin threatened to use nuclear weapons if there is a threat to the Russian state, sovereignty, and independence. The threat of nuclear weapons has become more real and pressing since the beginning of 2024.
On the Brink
In October 2022, Biden's administration urgently worked to avert a nuclear catastrophe. "We were on the brink," a senior official involved in the briefings recounted. The CIA, Pentagon, and White House formed task forces to prepare for a possible nuclear strike. William J. Burns, the CIA Director, delivered a clear warning to Sergei Naryshkin, head of Russia’s foreign intelligence service. Burns recalled, "I made it clear there would be clear consequences for Russia." Despite Naryshkin initially misunderstanding and thinking the U.S. sought to negotiate an armistice agreement, Burns ensured the message was explicit: any nuclear move by Putin would elicit a severe and decisive response. The preparations and diplomatic maneuvers during those weeks highlighted the reality that nuclear conflict was no longer a relic of the Cold War but a present danger requiring swift and decisive action. Meanwhile, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan made urgent calls to their Russian counterparts, emphasizing the consequences of nuclear escalation. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, prepared by U.S. officials, briefed China's President Xi Jinping on the intelligence, urging a strong public stance against nuclear use. Biden himself sent a direct message to Putin, insisting on an urgent meeting of emissaries. As these high-level communications were happening, the U.S. military conducted wargames to simulate potential scenarios, figuring out how best to respond to a nuclear strike. The Pentagon’s simulations showed that a Russian nuclear strike could serve multiple purposes, from forcing NATO to cease support for Ukraine to asserting dominance over reclaimed territories. Each simulation ended with the U.S. needing to take decisive action to prevent further nuclear escalation and maintain global stability.
Conclusion
Since the Cold War, international tensions have reached their highest point. Poland is ready to host nuclear weapons provided by its allies, the U.S. is arming Ukraine with more advanced weaponry, and Russia is arming Belarus with nuclear weapons - it's very frightening. We have two opposing sides, with both preparing to host nuclear weapons. Highlighting and emphasizing the rising international tensions is not intended to fear-monger by any means, but we, as global citizens, must remain aware of conflicts in many parts of the world and understand how they may affect our lives.
