Emmanuel Macron: The Newest Governmental Gambler?

By Nick Dohr

Emmanuel Macron has been in office since 2017 and has certainly had a tumultuous time as the French president. This was especially evident in 2022, when Macron’s coalition: Ensemble, an alliance of leftist and centrist political parties in the French Parliament lost the overall majority. While previously they held 289 seats, post 2022, the election delivered just 245, or just 42 percent. In order to continue his political agenda, Macron “has since resorted to pushing through legislation without a vote in the assembly, using a controversial constitutional tool known as 49/3.” Article 49 Paragraph 3 allows the prime minister to “to engage the government's responsibility before the National Assembly” on bills regarding social security or state budgets. For many French people and spectators worldwide, this constitutional tool was most notably remembered in Macron’s March decision to raise the retirement age in France from 62 to 64, an action that led to widespread protests around the country. 

However, Macron’s time in office has recently gotten even more tumultuous, as in early June of 2024, Macron’s centrist list suffered a crushing defeat in the European parliamentary elections, winning roughly 15% of the vote, while the far-right National Rally (RN) party led by notable French politician Marine Le Pen took roughly 33% of the vote. In response to this, Emmanuel Macron took likely the biggest gamble of his political career and chose to dissolve the French parliament by calling a snap election. Dissolving the parliament is the process in which every seat in the House of Commons becomes vacant, and every member of parliament that held one of those seats must re-campaign, and a new election will occur. Macron chose to set the two elections first on June 30th, with the runoff date being set on July 7th of 2024. In the case that a candidate does not win more than 50 percent of the vote, the top two candidates advance to the round on July 7th, along with any candidate who received support from more than 12.5% of registered voters. This could become especially relevant for Macron because there is a distinct possibility that a lack of support for his coalition’s candidates, and potentially low voter turnout will result in Macron’s candidates not reaching the second round.

Not only is this a massive gamble for Emmanuel Macron, but it is also a large gamble for the French economy, which has been put into a chaotic state due to the decision of Macron. This was recently shown when MEDEF, the main employers association in France hosted an opportunity for far-right leaders, Jordan Bardella, protege of Le Pen and the younger star of the National Rally party, and Eric Ciotti, leader of Les Républicains, to talk to business leaders in France. Bardella and Ciotti were given the opportunity to “audition” and present their agendas to earn business leader’s support during the election. This was the first time the two have appeared together, putting a more threatening lens on the upcoming elections for Macron as these two far-right parties have signaled a “marriage” in order to align against Macron. This caused internal conflict inside the Les Républicains party, whose leaders voted to expel Ciotti from the party after he allegedly violated the party’s statutes and ideology by aligning with the National Rally party. Just a few days later though, a Paris court overruled the decision, meaning he remains the leader of Republicans. French business leaders though during his meeting gave them a less than welcoming reception, citing fear that they could endanger the French economy and distance France from the European Union. In fact, financial markets in France have reacted negatively to the prospect of a change in government in France. Euro exchange rates have fallen, along with the price of government bonds. EFG International, a global private banking group credits the market drop to three main concerns: First: “The lack of fiscal discipline expected from the parties favored in the French elections”; Second: “The expected increase in corporate taxes, especially on the financial sector”; Third and finally: “The weakening of the European Union.” 

It is a political gamble for Macron because he is betting that by dissolving the French parliament and causing re-elections, he can capitalize on an imagined dislike for the far-right in order to gain votes for his own bloc. He was quoted by AP News saying that he believes that voters will ultimately choose to vote for the progressive bloc instead of the far-right. However, Macron is taking a large gamble on the assumption that the French people will vote for his party. “I think the French are intelligent, they see what’s being done, what’s coherent and what’s not, and they know what to do,” Macron said. He added: “I don’t believe at all that the worst can happen.” Macron is seeking to rely on this French intelligence on election day to gain the majority in Parliament. Macron is also taking the time to use the potential economic chaos that could lay ahead to contrast his own party’s lack of economic chaos with the opposition, quoted saying “The markets are going crazy, European and international partners are worried. What does this mean for the daily life of French people? Access to credit will be more expensive, loans for accessing housing will be more expensive," he said. According to Politico, Macron insisted that only his liberal government had the “seriousness and consistency” to manage the economy, contrasting his government’s strengths with a potential far-right coalition government. Regardless of the potential economic state though, Macron is still gambling that the French people will choose to vote with his coalition, regardless of their previous votes in the European Parliamentary elections.

This has the potential to be an unsuccessful gamble for Macron. A poll taken between June 14th and June 17th on the French people’s voting intentions in the first round of this upcoming snap election on June 30th had the National Rally party polling at 33%, the New Popular Front (a left-wing alliance looking to put their own stamp on the election) polling at 28%, while Macron’s Ensemble is polling at just 18%. There are three likely scenarios after this election, one: Macron recovers his majority, two: the National Rally wins the majority, or three: there is no overall majority, meaning the next three years of Macron’s term could be seen as relatively ineffective.