The Impact of a Second Trump Term on US-India Relations
Written by Sapna Suresh
Published on March 26th, 2025
On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump was reelected the next president of the U.S., making him the second president after Grover Cleveland to serve two nonconsecutive terms. In response, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated “his friend” for winning reelection on X (Formerly Twitter). The bonhomie between the two leaders was reflected when Modi visited Washington D.C in February 2025. However, regardless of the cordial personal rapport between the two leaders, a Trump presidency has the potential to create issues for India, including human rights, China, Russia, and Iran, many of which stem from Trump’s erratic personality.
Human Rights: Unlikely an Issue
In general, Trump will be less likely to criticize India for its actions in Kashmir or other actions by the Modi government and view relations with India on a pure transactional lens without concern for upholding international norms. However, it is also unknown whether or not the Trump administration would ignore an attempted assassination attempt on an Indian-Canadian dual citizen on American soil. While Trump may be indifferent about the treatment of Indian citizens on Indian soil, attempting to kill an American citizen on American soil is a different matter.
China: It's Complicated
Some scholars believe that a second Trump administration would be favorable to India. It is crucial to note that Trump's primary issues with China concern the trade imbalance and the need to safeguard critical technology. Aside from those two concerns, Trump does not seem to have a broader strategic vision regarding countering China or the Indo-Pacific more broadly. In fact, Trump has praised Xi Jinping, calling him “brilliant” for his ability to control 1.4 billion Chinese and expressed interest in getting along with China. Additionally, Trump has repeatedly accused India of being a “tariff king” and the recent tariffs on Canada and the European Union illustrate how Trump puts high emphasis on the transactional aspect of American foreign policy over a grand strategy to defend the liberal international order. Given Trump’s ambiguous stance on China, it is in India’s best interest to deal with the Chinese under the assumption that the U.S would stay neutral in an India-China border dispute and not put itself in a position of being sidelined in a Sino-American rapprochement like the 1970s.
Trump’s Approach to Russia: It’s Nuanced
During the Biden administration, India faced backlash over its refusal to follow the Western position on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, it is unknown how a second Trump administration will approach Russia in the long-term. Trump has claimed he could end the Ukraine War “within a day" and has accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky of starting the war and has called him a “dictator.”
However, despite recent events, such as the public spat between Trump and Zelensky in the Oval Office and voting alongside Russia in a UN resolution about Ukraine, it does not necessarily indicate a full Russian-American rapprochement. While it may lead to a photo-op summit between Trump and Putin, Trump’s overtures to Russia will not create the “reverse Kissinger” (the US allying with Russia against China which was the opposite during the Cold War) as some in the US may hope for.
Additionally, it is worth remembering that during his first term, Trump pursued a hawkish approach to Russia. In 2017, Trump signed the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions (CAATSA) (Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions) H.R 3364 bill into law. Aside from prohibiting American companies from doing business in Russia, Iran, and North Korea, the law also permits secondary sanctions. Secondary sanctions allow the U.S. government to sanction any foreign company that does business in those three countries, and technically, any Indian company can get sanctioned. In fact, during an economic conference in Russia in October, Putin himself admitted that under Trump, there were “ restrictions and sanctions against Russia like no other president has introduced before him.” While Trump seems to have embraced the “America-first” approach towards the Russia-Ukraine War for now, it is unknown if Trump will stick to this view throughout his term.
Point of Disagreement: Iran
Another likely challenge for India under a second Trump term is regarding Iran. Iran is a strategic partner for India, as it relies on Iranian territory to access Afghanistan and markets in Central Asia. At a fundamental level, India completely disagrees with the American narrative portraying Iran as the “biggest” state sponsor of terrorism. From the Indian perspective, Pakistan is the biggest state sponsor of terrorism and views Iran as a partner in counterterrorism. In his first term, Trump instituted extremely hawkish policies, such as withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal and imposed the policy of “maximum pressure," ordered the assassination of Qasem Soleimani, and many other escalatory policies. Due to Trump's maximum pressure campaign, India was forced to halt Iranian oil purchases, which strengthened Iran-China relations. In his second term, while Trump has expressed interest to pursue a nuclear deal and sent a letter to Tehran, the reimposition of the maximum pressure policy and heightened tensions between Iran and Israel will make any detente between Iran and the U.S extremely challenging.
Trump’s Unpredictability
Finally, India will have to deal with Trump’s unpredictable and incoherent conduct of foreign policy. Trump does not articulate any consistent strategic vision and contradicts himself repeatedly, some within the same day. Given this reality, India should be ready to face anything under a second Trump term. Trump’s erratic nature should be another reason India should not rely on the United States when conducting its foreign policy, given the country’s unpredictability in foreign policy commitments after every election cycle. The best way forward for India would be to continue its tradition of non-alignment and reduce dependence on America. If there are any lessons to be learned from the Trump-Zelensky meeting, any country that is too dependent on another country for its security is vulnerable.
