The Future of Lebanon: Can New Leadership Overcome the Past?
Written by Mark Achkar; Edited by Surya Ambatipudi and Mario Lopez
Published on March 20th, 2025
Introduction
Since October 2022, Lebanon has been grappling with a power vacuum following the departure of President Michel Aoun, which left the presidency vacant for over two years. This absence of leadership exacerbated an already fragile political system, and plunged the country deeper into paralysis. The vacancy reflected not just a failure to elect a successor, but a broader inability of Lebanon’s sectarian political factions to reach a consensus amid growing internal and external pressures. On January 9, 2025, Parliament elected Joseph Aoun as President, and just four days later, on January 13, 2025, Nawaf Salam was appointed as prime minister. These leadership changes have brought renewed hope, yet the challenges facing Lebanon are profound and deeply rooted.
Lebanon’s political struggles are inextricably tied to a series of cascading crises that have unfolded over the past few years. The economic collapse that began in 2019 has been described by the World Bank as one of the worst globally since the 19th century. The Lebanese pound lost over 90% of its value, which propelled millions into poverty and eroded the middle class. Banks froze depositors’ accounts, unemployment soared, and basic services like electricity and healthcare became unreliable, pushing the country to the brink of a humanitarian disaster.
The situation deteriorated further with the catastrophic Beirut port explosion in August 2020, which killed over 200 people, injured thousands, and displaced more than 300,000 residents. The blast, caused by the improper storage of ammonium nitrate, demonstrated the negligence and corruption that have long plagued Lebanon’s political elite. The explosion not only devastated the capital but also symbolized the collapse of public trust in the government. This sparked widespread protests and demands for accountability that have largely gone unmet.
Escalating regional tensions further exacerbates these domestic challenges. The ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas heightened security concerns, with Lebanon often caught in the crossfire due to the presence of Hezbollah, a powerful Shiite militant group and political party backed by Iran. Hezbollah’s influence in Lebanon’s political and military spheres complicates efforts to assert state sovereignty and disarm non-state actors. Iran’s role as a key player in Lebanon further entangles the country in broader Middle Eastern geopolitics, making internal reforms even more difficult to achieve.
Meanwhile, Syria’s evolving political landscape under a new regime remains a significant wildcard. Lebanon has long been influenced by its neighbor’s affairs, from the Syrian military presence that lasted until 2005 to the influx of refugees following the Syrian civil war. The uncertainty surrounding Syria’s future adds another layer of complexity to Lebanon’s already volatile political environment
The combination of economic collapse, political stagnation, and regional instability has left Lebanon in a precarious position. The recent leadership changes offer a glimmer of hope, but whether Joseph Aoun and Nawaf Salam can navigate these multifaceted challenges and steer the country toward recovery remains an open question. The path forward will require not only political will and reform but also the resilience of the Lebanese people and strategic support from the international community.
Nawaf Salam gestures as he arrives to meet with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun at the presidential palace in Baabda, Lebanon. Credit: Reuters
A New Era of Leadership
Joseph Aoun, the newly elected president, is a seasoned military leader with a distinguished career in the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF). Born in 1964 in Sin el-Fil, a suburb of Beirut, Aoun rose through the military ranks to become the commander of the LAF in 2017.
While his birthplace is near Beirut, Aoun's family hails from Al-Aaishiyah in southern Lebanon, which has influenced his understanding of the region's complexities. His leadership style is characterized by discipline and a commitment to national sovereignty. Aoun gained widespread respect for his role in leading the LAF’s successful operations against the Islamic State on the Lebanese-Syrian border in 2017 by demonstrating a hands-on approach with leadership from the front lines. Unlike his predecessor, Michel Aoun (no relation), Joseph Aoun is seen as a unifying figure with no direct ties to Lebanon’s entrenched political elite.
Aoun’s ideological stance is rooted in strengthening state institutions and reducing the influence of non-state actors, particularly Hezbollah. In his inaugural speech, he emphasized the need for the Lebanese state to hold a monopoly on arms, signaling his intention to curtail Hezbollah’s military autonomy. However, his military background and past cooperation with Hezbollah during his tenure as army commander raise questions about his willingness to confront the group head-on. Aoun’s challenge will be balancing his reformist agenda with the realities of Lebanon’s sectarian power dynamics.
Nawaf Salam, appointed as Prime Minister by Parliament with the endorsement of President Joseph Aoun, brings a wealth of diplomatic and legal experience to Lebanon’s executive branch. Born in 1953 in Beirut, Salam is a prominent jurist and academic. He earned degrees from Sciences Po in Paris and Harvard Law School, and later served as a lecturer at the Sorbonne and the American University of Beirut. Salam’s international career includes a decade-long tenure as Lebanon’s representative to the United Nations from 2007 to 2017, during which he navigated complex geopolitical issues and promoted Lebanon’s interests on the global stage. In 2018, he was appointed as a judge at the International Court of Justice, and eventually became its president in 2024.
Salam’s ideological focus centers on legal and institutional reform, anti-corruption measures, and reducing sectarianism’s grip on public institutions. Throughout his career, Salam has emphasized the importance of justice, human rights, and the rule of law. In his inaugural speech as prime minister-designate, he stated, "It is now time to start a new phase [in Lebanon], rooted in justice, security, progress, and opportunities so that Lebanon can be the country of free citizens, equal in their rights and obligations.” Despite his past association with Lebanon’s Hezbollah-dominated governments at the UN, Salam is widely viewed as a quiet critic of the group and a supporter of disarmament. His 2023 book, Lebanon Between Past and Future, outlines a comprehensive reform agenda, though it notably omits direct confrontation with Hezbollah’s military presence. Together, Aoun and Salam represent a departure from Lebanon’s traditional political figures. Their combined military and diplomatic backgrounds offer a unique blend of leadership qualities that could steer Lebanon toward reform. However, their ability to implement change will depend on navigating the entrenched sectarian power structures and managing both domestic and international pressures.
The Role of International Influence
Despite the optimism surrounding Aoun and Salam’s leadership, Lebanon’s path to reform is fraught with obstacles. The country’s sectarian power-sharing system, known as consociationalism, mandates that the president be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim. This structure, while designed to maintain a delicate balance among Lebanon’s diverse religious communities, has entrenched sectarian divisions and facilitated corruption. Political leaders often prioritize sectarian loyalty over national interest, leading to gridlock and inefficiency.
Nabih Berri, the long-serving speaker of parliament and leader of the Amal Movement, exemplifies the challenges of Lebanon’s sectarian system. Berri has held his position since 1992, wielding significant influence over legislative processes and maintaining close ties with Hezbollah. His continued presence in the government highlights the difficulty of dislodging entrenched political figures who have benefitted from the status quo for decades. Hezbollah’s role in Lebanese politics further complicates the reform agenda. As a powerful Shiite militant group and political party backed by Iran, Hezbollah maintains a significant military presence independent of the Lebanese state. This dual role undermines the authority of the government and challenges efforts to establish a monopoly on the use of force.
Nawaf Salam, with his legal and diplomatic background, faces a different set of challenges. Forming an independent and effective cabinet amidst resistance from entrenched political interests will be a daunting task. Salam’s reform agenda, which includes judicial independence, administrative transparency, and economic revitalization, will likely encounter opposition from factions that have long benefited from Lebanon’s sectarian power-sharing system. Additionally, Salam’s past association with Hezbollah-dominated governments at the UN may complicate his efforts to distance himself from the group and promote disarmament.
Regional dynamics further complicate Lebanon’s internal challenges. The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria has introduced a new regime whose policies remain a mystery. Lebanon’s historical ties with Syria, including the Syrian military’s influence over Lebanese politics for decades, mean that any shifts in Damascus’s policies could have profound implications for Beirut. The uncertainty surrounding Syria’s new leadership raises questions about future bilateral relations, border security, and the potential resurgence of external interference in Lebanon’s domestic affairs. Lebanon’s political elite will need to navigate this evolving regional landscape carefully by balancing the opportunities and risks posed by Syria’s transformation.
In addition to Lebanon’s precarious politics, the current ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah introduces an element of uncertainty. While recent negotiations have resulted in a temporary pause in hostilities, the durability of this agreement remains in question. Both parties have a history of conflict, and tensions in the region could challenge the stability of the truce. Any potential escalation risks further destabilizing Lebanon, which complicates efforts to achieve political stability and reform. Aoun and Salam’s ability to navigate this complex situation will be crucial in shaping Lebanon’s future.
Upon establishing a credible and capable government, a task still in progress, Aoun and Salam will need to address three key objectives to promote stability in Lebanon. They will rely on support from international partners, including the United States. First, they should work to fully implement the recently extended ceasefire with Israel and adhere to relevant UN resolutions concerning the disarmament of non-state actors. Second, Lebanon’s leadership will need to prioritize reconstruction efforts in the conflict-affected south and other damaged regions while ensuring the process is transparent, inclusive, and efficient. This includes not only rebuilding physical infrastructure but also addressing the social impacts of the conflict by assisting displaced populations, supporting refugees, and rebuilding trust between citizens and the government. Ensuring a transparent reconstruction process will be essential to maintaining public confidence and ensuring that humanitarian aid is effectively utilized.
The third objective Aoun must address to stabilize Lebanon is reviving its collapsing economy Since 2019, despite an International Monetary Fund (IMF) staff-level agreement outlining a recovery path, Lebanon’s leadership has failed to enact the reforms needed to unlock international aid. This failure has led to a catastrophic collapse of the banking sector, the deterioration of education and healthcare systems, and a currency stripped of its value. Basic services such as electricity and clean water are now increasingly controlled by private entities and mafias exploiting parallel markets. Restoring economic stability will require bold reforms to fix public institutions and services, rebuild trust with the international community, and reassure the Lebanese people that their government is capable of leading them out of crisis.
The international community’s involvement adds another layer of complexity. While support from countries like the United States and France can provide much-needed financial and diplomatic backing, it also raises concerns about Lebanon’s sovereignty. The involvement of foreign powers in Lebanon’s political processes, such as the reported support for Aoun’s election by Western diplomats, underscores the persistent influence of external actors in shaping the nation’s trajectory.
The Role of International Influence
Lebanon’s political landscape has long been shaped by the influence of foreign powers, and the recent leadership changes are no exception. The election of Joseph Aoun and the appointment of Nawaf Salam were closely watched by international actors, which reflected the broader geopolitical stakes involved. The United States and France, in particular, have expressed support for Lebanon’s new leadership, emphasizing the importance of implementing comprehensive reforms. U.S. envoy Amos Hochstein described Aoun’s appointment as a “step toward peace, security, and stability,” while French President Emmanuel Macron highlighted the opportunity for reform and the restoration of Lebanon’s sovereignty.
However, this international support comes with strings attached. Financial assistance from institutions like the IMF and the World Bank is often contingent on Lebanon’s commitment to implementing specific economic and governance reforms. While these conditions aim to promote transparency and accountability, they also raise concerns about Lebanon’s sovereignty and the potential for foreign agendas to overshadow domestic priorities.
Iran’s role in Lebanon further complicates the international dimension of the country’s political challenges. As Hezbollah’s primary backer, Iran wields significant influence over Lebanese politics and security. This relationship has drawn Lebanon deeper into regional conflicts, particularly those involving Israel and Saudi Arabia. Navigating this complex web of alliances and rivalries will be a critical task for Lebanese leaders as they seek to balance domestic reform with regional stability.
International organizations like the United Nations also play a role in Lebanon’s political dynamics. The UN has been involved in peacekeeping and conflict resolution efforts in the region, particularly through the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). Nawaf Salam’s background as Lebanon’s representative to the UN and a judge at the International Court of Justice positions him uniquely to leverage international legal frameworks in support of Lebanon’s reform agenda.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, during his recent visit to Beirut, emphasized the international community’s commitment to Lebanon’s recovery and stability. “A window has opened paving the way for a new era of institutional stability, a State fully able to protect its citizens, and a system that would allow the tremendous potential of the Lebanese people to flourish,” Mr. Guterres told reporters. He acknowledged the significant challenges ahead but emphasized the importance of this moment as an opportunity for meaningful change. The UN has pledged to intensify support for recovery and reconstruction by working alongside Lebanese authorities and international partners to rebuild the country.
Ultimately, the success of Lebanon’s new leadership will depend on their ability to manage these international influences while maintaining a focus on domestic priorities. The challenge lies in balancing the benefits of foreign support with the need to preserve Lebanon’s sovereignty and address the root causes of its political and economic crises. Aoun and Salam’s ability to manage these external pressures will be a key determinant of whether Lebanon can break free from its cycle of instability and move toward a more prosperous future.
Conclusion
Lebanon stands at a pivotal crossroads with the election of Joseph Aoun and the appointment of Nawaf Salam, which offer a potential break from years of political deadlock and economic turmoil. Their combined military and diplomatic expertise presents a rare opportunity to confront the nation’s deep-rooted challenges. However, success will require more than strong leadership: it will demand navigating Lebanon’s complex sectarian power-sharing system, managing Hezbollah’s dual role as both a political party and armed militia, and addressing the external pressures from shifting regional dynamics and international actors.
The fragile ceasefire with Israel and the uncertain future of Syria’s new regime pose both risks and opportunities. Meanwhile, international support from the United States, France, the UN, and the IMF offers a pathway to recovery but also raises concerns about Lebanon’s sovereignty and the influence of external agendas. Aoun and Salam must balance these pressures while focusing on urgent reforms: rebuilding war-torn regions, reviving the economy, and restoring basic services—all while tackling systemic issues like corruption and sectarianism.
Ultimately, Lebanon’s future hinges not just on the actions of its new leaders but also on the resilience and determination of its people. The challenges are immense, but so is the potential for meaningful change. Whether this new chapter will be marked by genuine progress or become another missed opportunity in Lebanon’s tumultuous history remains to be seen. What is clear, however, is that the choices made in the coming months will have lasting implications for the nation and its role in the broader Middle Eastern landscape.
