The Dissolution of the German Bundestag and the Rise of the FarRight
By Beatrice Ehrhardt
In November of this past year, the German government – ruled by the ‘traffic light’ coalition of the Social Democratic Party (SPD), Free Democratic Party (FDP), and the Greens – collapsed due to political and economic challenges following German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s decision to fire his finance minister over a months-long budget dispute. Scholz called for a vote of confidence in early December and lost, resulting in a snap election that will proceed on February 23, 2025. Germany continues to face chaos and uncertainty ahead of the election amid economic failure, political infighting, and the growing influence of the far right.
Scholz’s coalition first joined together in 2021 with a promising spirit of cooperation – the three parties claimed that Germany had become complacent under the 16-year rule of Christian Democratic Union’s (CDU) Angela Merkel and pledged to transform and innovate Germany. This optimism didn’t last, however, as infighting escalated with economic crisis. Just a month before the collapse, the International Monetary Fund’s forecast showed the German economy to be weakening far more than any other major industrialized country. Chancellor Scholz, economic minister Robert Habeck, and finance minister Christian Lindner all presented clashing solutions to fix the German economy, featuring contradictory approaches to dealing with a multi-billion-euro gap in the next year’s budget. The fiscally conservative FDP delivered an 18-page plan to restructure the budget with tax and spending cuts in order to pull Germany out of stagnation and decline. Contrarily, Habeck of the Greens put forward a plan to repair the economy through investment, detailing a multi-billion-euro ‘Germany Fund’ that would modernize infrastructure and provide investment premiums to start-ups, small and medium-sized enterprises, and large corporations.
Unable to come to an agreement, Scholz sacked Lindner of the FDP from his position as finance minister, and Germany – Europe’s largest economy – plummeted into a state of political disarray. According to Chancellor Scholz, Lindner had “betrayed [his] confidence” and put his party’s interests over those of the country in using what he called “small-minded, party political tactics”. He claimed Lindner had refused to cooperate when he offered a plan to bring down energy costs, boost investment, and maintain support for Ukraine. On the other hand, Lindner accused Scholz of “leading Germany into a phase of uncertainty”.
After the parties’ leaders met and decided on the dissolution of their partnership, the Chancellor, left with no choice, called for a vote of confidence – only the sixth recorded in the nation’s post-war history – which he ultimately lost. Following the vote, President Frank-Walter Steinmeier made the formal decision to dissolve parliament just days before the new year, triggering an election to go forward within 60 days of his decision, as per the constitution. Of the 733-seat parliament, 207 MPs voted for Scholz, mostly from his own party, while 394 voted against and 116 abstained. Chancellor Scholz originally planned for the vote to happen in January with elections following in mid-March, but this plan was rejected by CDU leader of the opposition Friedrich Merz as not being soon enough. Scholz fully intended on losing the vote of confidence with hope that it could work in his favor. As his loss in December has allowed elections to move forward in February rather than in September, this early election gives his party a better chance at revival.
Scholz’s decision to stage a vote that he expected to lose in order to dissolve his own government has been characterized as a “kamikaze” move – while Berlin is somewhat relieved that years of infighting has come to an end, Germany’s political party system has become fragmented with more parties than ever in parliament, and new political forces more radical. The SPD, FDP, and Greens have all hit record lows in the polls, and each party is under pressure to assert its own agenda. Following poor results in state and European elections, the upcoming federal election is not looking promising for the former coalition’s parties. The conservative CDU is currently topping the polls with 30% and appears to be on track to return to government – as declared by the leader of their partner, the Christian Social Union’s (CSU) Markus Söder, the traffic light coalition is “history”. The far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) is trailing behind the CDU/CSU pair. The AfD and Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), both radical parties, have proven capable of taking votes from mainstream parties in recent state elections.
The far right in particular has seen a wave of support in Germany as populism has surged across Europe in recent years. The AfD have transformed over its 11-year history from a populist movement to a radical right force, and it has grown more popular and more extreme with time. In its early years, the AfD pushed out other conservative parties, establishing itself as the dominant force to the right of the CDU/CSU. For voters wanting a far-right agenda, they had limited choices – conservatives under Angela Merkel had drifted toward the center, and minor parties had no chance of entering parliament. In its first year of existence, the AfD had nearly enough votes already to gain seats in the Bundestag; it became the ideal ‘alternative’ for the growing right-wing in Germany. Since then, the AfD has gained broad representation in the Bundestag, all 16 state parliaments, and even the European Parliament.
Immigration has been one of the most pressing issues highlighted by the far right, especially since the migrant crisis of 2015 when Merkel offered over 1 million asylum seekers entry into Germany. More recently, there have been a slew of violent attacks linked to foreign suspects, leading to greater concern over security. The AfD has taken a hardline position on migration policy, calling for borders to be closed and for asylum seekers to lose their right to family reunification. In late January, opposition leader Merz deliberately drew on AfD votes to pass a motion through parliament for tougher border and asylum rules and has been widely criticized for legitimizing the far right and breaking the taboo of working with them. Merz tried to take it a step further with a bill that proposed even tighter controls on immigration, but the bill failed – while he had total support from the AfD, he was refused backing from 12 members of his own party. Merz has been condemned for normalizing their far-right politics in Germany and leaving many apprehensive about the influence the AfD may have on and after February 23.
The election results have been further made unpredictable as there will be new electoral rules followed. In Germany’s representative democracy, voters cast one ballot for a candidate representing a constituency and one for a party’s list of candidates in their federal state. The 2017 election produced one of the largest parliaments in the world with a 735-seat Bundestag, but the amended Federal Electoral Act of 2023 has since limited the new assembly to only 630 seats. Under this new law, the procedure still prioritizes proportional representation, meaning seats are allocated based on second votes received nationwide – if a party proportionally wins more seats than its share of the national vote, some will be left vacant. There is a 5% threshold of the second vote needed for parties to enter the Bundestag, however, those that win at least three constituency seats are entitled to parliamentary seats according to their national vote, even if it falls below the 5% threshold. This gives smaller parties a greater chance of entering parliament in this election, making it even more unclear what the makeup of the Bundestag will look like.
The AfD is on the rise, polling in at 22% now since entering the Bundestag in 2017 with only 12.6%. While they are unlikely to enter government without any party willing to form a coalition with them, they are claiming votes that would otherwise go to the centrist parties which have put forward all recent German chancellors. As the far right grows in popularity, it is becoming more difficult for mainstream parties to form stable coalitions. This is likely to be seen in the February election – if the far right wins just a fifth of seats in parliament, a coalition willbe harder to come by. Conservatives may be leading in the polls, but their options for partners are limited. The radical left may face the same predicament – Germany’s era of harmonious coalitions could be coming to an end.
From economic crisis to turmoil within and between parties, there is growing uncertainty in the German political state as we near the upcoming federal election. The AfD continues to rise in the polls as their anti-government and anti-migrant messaging distorts Germany’s democratic culture. Still, the centrist CDU is in the lead, although many are fearful of further collaboration with the far right if they are victorious. This all comes at a time when European leaders have been trying to pull together in the face of a possible trade war with the United States. Whoever is voted in next will face high energy and labor costs, an economy that, for the first time in decades, has shrunk for two years in a row, and a surge in far-right extremism.
