Navigating the European Union’s Relationship With Erdoğan’s Turkey
By Surya Ambatipudi
A Post-WWII History of Turkey and the West
The end of the Second World War marked a new era for the Western world. As Europe began to rebuild, Turkey stood as an emerging democracy that sought to align itself with the liberal values of the West. After joining the United Nations in 1945, Turkey materialized its desire to economically integrate into the West through its position as a founding member of the Organization for European Economic Cooperation (OEEC). The OEEC focused on joint economic recovery through Marshall Plan aid and aimed to facilitate economic cooperation on the continent. After Marshall Plan aid ended, the OEEC became the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OEED, which expanded its reach beyond Europe and established a community of nations that worked together to coordinate economic policy. Concerning defense and foreign policy, a newly democratic and liberalizing Turkey was admitted to NATO in 1952. The Turkish foreign ministry continues to affirm its values as consistent with those of NATO and asserts that it remains a valuable asset for the organization. In 1963, The Ankara Agreement was signed in response to Turkey’s application to join the European Economic Community, which later established a customs union in 1996, signaling a new era of EU-Turkish trade relations. Three years later, at the Helsinki Summit, Turkey was recognized by the European Union as a candidate state for accession. The spirit and excitement surrounding accession, however, was relatively short-lived, as members of the European Union including Austria and France expressed concern for Turkey’s territorial disputes with Cyprus and alleged human rights violations. Consistently stalled accession talks left a bitter taste in Ankara’s mouth. In retaliation, Turkey started taking steps to establish itself as a regional power rather than an extension of Europe. Most notably, Turkish foreign policy began to differ from that of the European Union, as they adhered to a more critical approach towards Israel and Israel’s treatment of the Palestinian people.
Conflict Under the Erdoğan Administration
In 2002, general elections were held amidst a backdrop of economic uncertainty and ideological tensions within the government. The victory was celebrated by the Justice and Development Party (AK), which adopted a more skeptical policy towards the European Union and operated on more Islamist values. Though the party continued to follow secular law and work towards integration into the EU, many regarded the AK Party’s success as a shift from former Turkish centrism and were concerned about potential Islamization efforts. The most significant face of the AK Party was Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who in 2014, won the presidential election. Erdoğan ran a powerful campaign that stressed infrastructure development and economic rehabilitation of the middle class and implemented policies that developed the nation. However, Erdoğan’s administration was and continues to be fraught with corruption and democratic backsliding. Under his presidency, media freedom and rightful political opposition were under threat. Reporters Without Borders reports that 90% of the media is controlled and owned by the AK Party, which contributed to propaganda that has boosted the success of the party since the 2014 election. Moreover, an attempted coup in 2016 served as an excuse for the AK Party to adopt undemocratic policies. The coup resulted in a two-year state of emergency that brought forth thousands of arrests of individuals linked to opposition parties and further consolidation of power in Erdoğan’s hands. The extension of Erdoğan’s executive reach has ruffled the feathers of the European Union, which has become increasingly less favorable of Turkish accession unless an authoritarian shift is avoided.
One of the turning points of EU-Turkish relations under Erdoğan’s administration is reflected amidst the 2015 migration crisis, where millions of Syrian refugees made their way through Turkey into Europe. Overwhelmed and pressured by an inability to fund such a large influx of people, the European Union decided to establish a migration deal with Turkey in 2016. The EU-Turkey Deal, as it came to be known, aimed to control the flow of migrants from Turkey to Europe by requiring that migrants arriving in Greece from Turkey be sent back if they did not qualify for asylum. The deal also stipulated that the EU would send €6 billion in aid to Turkey to support the refugees hosted there. Turkey would benefit from this deal through a promise of visa-free travel for Turkish citizens to the EU’s Schengen Area. The policy is widely regarded as successful in decreasing the number of arrivals into Europe through the Balkans. However, many of the promises made to Turkey have remained unfulfilled, including visa liberalization. This prompted Erdoğan to reopen the Turkish-Greek border temporarily in 2020, disregarding the deal’s provisions and permitting migration to resume. This marked a low point in EU-Turkey relations, especially in a time of crisis for the continent.
The Future of EU-Turkey Relations
The state of EU-Turkey relations remains uncertain, though it is clear that the Erdoğan presidency has contributed to a stagnation of positive diplomatic relations and, in turn, accession efforts. Though Turkey stands on the precipice of democracy and risks a dangerous fall, the European Union’s persistent ignorance towards Turkish demands also contributes to deteriorating relations. In fact, Erdoğan has used the freezing of accession talks to his advantage, approving Sweden’s entry into NATO in 2024 only after agreements to restart accession efforts were promised. Stockholm consequently had no option but to support Turkey’s demands, which demonstrates the important yet controversial role of Turkey as a final decision-maker in transatlantic security policy. The tension between Erdoğan’s Turkey and the EU must be resolved through compromises and an acceptance of reasonable demands brought to the table by both parties. While Turkey must display a recommitment to European values and democracy, the EU must also ensure that it follows through with promises made to the Turkish government and people. As crises in the Middle East and Ukraine enter fresh phases of conflict, the EU and Turkey play a crucial role in promoting stability in these regions. With historical ties that extend for hundreds of years, it would benefit both bodies to rekindle a strong alliance that benefits national security, economics, and political stability.
