Implications of the Balloon Incident
Author: Ashlee Khoo
From a trade war to a human rights crisis, the deterioration of U.S.-China relations has accelerated in recent years. In the latest of a series of geopolitical crises, a Chinese high-altitude surveillance balloon was detected in U.S. airspace on the 2 February, just 48 hours before Secretary of State Antony Blinken was scheduled to travel to Beijing to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Mr. Blinken was due to travel to Beijing on February 3rd but postponed the meeting indefinitely hours after the balloon was shot down. This would have marked the first visit by a U.S. Secretary of State since 2018. The talk was projected to ease some of the tension between the two nations but no plans have been made to resume the visit or for the two officials to meet.
This is not the first time talks have been cancelled in the midst of a geopolitical crisis. In January 2022, the White House cancelled a meeting with Vice Premier Liu He due to disagreements over intellectual property regulation. This meeting was intended to resolve trade differences, with U.S. officials hailing this session as an opportunity for both sides to gain a deeper understanding of their leaders’ positions.
Later that year in August, scheduled talks for a working group on climate change were cancelled by China in light of Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s sudden visit to Taiwan. Climate specialists looked to this meeting as an opportunity to advance negotiations for the COP26 climate negotiations and the Paris Agreement.
What are the benefits to halting face-to-face communication in light of geopolitical crises? There are a few reasons that speak to those advantages, such as the diplomatic connotations of carrying out a state visit, or the symbolic act of travelling to meet a diplomatic counterpart in their home country. However, as relations deteriorate between both the U.S. and China, these benefits are few and narrow.
When the White House cancelled their meeting with Liu in January 2022, Arthur Kroeber, Editor of China Economic Quarterly emphasized in an interview that diplomatic talks can foster relationships which are helpful during times of “stress and crisis.” As talks for the working group on climate change were cancelled, former Secretary of State, John Kerry commented the cancellation was “both disappointing and misguided” and that “the entire world will suffer the consequences.”
“China-U.S. dialogue and conversation of all kinds are especially important,” said Victor Gao, ex-diplomat and president of the Center for China and Globalisation, on the cancellation of almost 100 U.S.-China talks under former President Trump’s administration. For example, during the anti-SARS campaign of 2003, U.S.-China dialogue opened the lane for effective communication which played an important role in the success of the campaign. Even President Xi felt it pertinent to comment that “one basic fact remains unchanged, China and the U.S. both benefit from cooperation and lose in a confrontation.”
As competition between the U.S. and China heat up in light of the balloon incident, lines of communication become narrower as officials on both sides remain in the dark about each other’s intentions. In such times, the risk of confrontation over misunderstandings on such volatile issues such as espionage are high. Besides that, as communication breaks down, it inhibits the possibility for cooperation during times of crisis.
Though the balloon crisis is far from being resolved and there are new developments each day, there are many voices who advocate for open lines of communication during such situations. When Blinken met with Wang on the sidelines of the Munich Security Conference on 18 February in a reopening of communication lanes, both sides reiterated they were not seeking grounds for a new Cold War. On the other hand, reports state that as President Biden tries to maintain communication, bipartisan debate over the incident mounts, adding pressure to the administration. As tensions rise further amid this incident, it remains to be seen whether both sides can remain committed to open dialogue to keep escalation at bay.
