20’th CCP National Congress Special Issue 01: China’s Zero Covid Policy and Beyond
Author: Kristi Ross
Editors: Ava Holtzman, Joshua Blaustein
Image: Guangzhou, Local Health Worker at the Airport’s International Arrival
Nearly three years into the pandemic, China is sticking with strict COVID-19 containment policies that have led to a string of lockdowns around the nation, economic damage, and widespread frustration among Chinese citizens. As reported by researchers at Oxford University who developed the Oxford Coronavirus Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) to measure the strictness of government policies, China currently has the strictest containment measures. The Chinese government has yet to announce when or how it will ease its restrictions; how will China exit its zero-Covid policy?
The zero-Covid policy is meant to acknowledge that domestic COVID-19 outbreaks are inevitable and a ‘dynamic’ response is necessary when cases surface. These “dynamic responses” entail the use of prevention measures such as regular PCR tests and quarantines in government-supervised facilities for potential or suspected cases. If found positive for COVID-19, those in close contact with the infected must quarantine. In situations that the government deems dire, control tactics such as mandatory quarantines in government-supervised facilities, community-wide lockdowns, and even entire city lockdowns are common.
Every PCR test taken is electronically saved to a government database that uses mobile phone signals to also track one’s travel history. Each person has a profile that also shows their COVID-19 test result history. A flagged profile will prevent a person from accessing public transportation and public venues; a notification for a mandatory home quarantine is the most common method of enforcing COVID restrictions. To the dread of nearly a billion people, profiles can turn abnormal without warning if one was at a restaurant where an infected person ate or if the infected person is a friend of a friend. Even if all requirements are met, profiles can be labeled as abnormal without any cause. Worst of all, a single case can trigger the lockdown of an entire building, residential compound, and even city. Tier one and tier two cities- the most developed cities with the largest political and cultural impact over China- such as Shanghai, Xian, Chengdu, Shenzhen, and Tianjin have faced large-scale lockdowns. Entire provinces and regions such as Tibet, Jilin, and Xinjiang have been locked down.
The lockdowns and dreaded profile alerts have caused distress across the nation. Another cause of stress for Chinese citizens is the restrictions on renewing passports for non-essential travel. China’s National Immigration Administration has made it clear that individuals who want to travel for leisure will not be granted passport renewals. To the disappointment of many, policy adjustments to the zero-COVID policy have yet to come. According to Yanzhong Huang, a global health senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, the lack of amendments to the zero-COVID policy is because the lockdowns and other preventative measures are under the jurisdiction of local governments, who face no credible punishments for their alleged excessiveness.
To the surprise of many, on November 11th, 2022, China announced that it would “optimize and adjust” the zero-COVID policy; these updates do not account for the impact of the lockdowns or prevent the creation of more large-scale lockdowns. Significant changes include: quarantine times for travelers have been cut from seven days to five, only requiring one negative PCR test within 48 hours of landing in China instead of two negative PCR tests and limiting the period of home isolation to three days. The news of these changes has raised Chinese stocks to their biggest one-day gain in the last eight months.
Will China ever end its zero-COVID policy? President Xi Jinping, in a speech at the 20th Party Congress, praised the government's adherence to the zero-COVID policy. Xi remarked that he intends to double down on policies that target self-reliance at the expense of China’s long-term economic growth. As cited by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, China’s economy has been severely negatively affected by these lockdowns, which have sparked rising social discontent. China might have to end its zero-COVID policy if local governments no longer have the fiscal capacity or public support to enforce its regulations.
