Russia: Estonia’s Biggest Security Threat
Author: Kate Capparelle
Executive Summary
Russia poses the greatest security threat to Estonia, driven by its geographical proximity, societal integration challenges with Estonia’s Russian minority, and rising cyber-attack threats. While these issues are not new, the 2022 invasion of Ukraine has sparked concern about Russia’s future goals. When evaluating possible next steps for the Kremlin, Estonia’s proximity, size, and history related to Russia are a key part of the discussion. The deep historical ties between the two countries have resulted in a volatile relationship characterized by instability and mistrust. Estonia, a former Soviet state, fears a return to Soviet-era circumstances where its people were silenced, controlled, and killed by Russian forces in the name of unity. This fear is critical to understand because it provides the backdrop for decades of vulnerability in the Baltic states. Consequently, Estonia and its neighbors immediately raised the alarm and expressed concern about being the next target as they observed Russia’s invasion. The circumstances in which Estonia finds itself today are of the utmost importance to greater European safety and stability. Addressing and analyzing these three weak points of Estonian security will dictate where economic, diplomatic, and military engagement must be directed to prevent future Russian aggression.
Geographical Concerns
The small geographical size and proximity to the Russian border are worrying factors when assessing Estonia’s regional security and defense capabilities. According to Tuuli Duneton, Undersecretary for Defence Policy at the Estonian Ministry of Defense, “Russia has plans to increase considerably the number of forces behind the Estonian and Latvian borders,” which could occur within the next two years, raising immediate concerns in Tallinn as to how they can secure their border before Russia has reestablished its defenses. 1 These estimates highlight the problems ahead for Baltic states as Russia is not expected to quit after its invasion of Ukraine is settled. The belief that the Kremlin will continue to aggressively push outward is widely shared among Western allies.
Being a NATO member has been a strong deterrent for Estonia against Russian advances, but membership alone is not enough as Putin becomes increasingly ambitious and unpredictable. These future implications for the region explain current efforts to prepare for possible attacks. In April 2023, the Tapa military base in Estonia “held a massive military exercise involving some 14,000 troops from allied countries to train for scenarios of a military confrontation with Russia.” 2 This, and similar military exercises, are fundamental to Estonian security. Furthermore, Estonia hosts “one of eight NATO battalion- sized multinational battlegroups” which is critical to deterrence by offering immediate access to soldiers in the event of an attack.” 3 By having prepared troops near the border between Estonia and Russia, along with other security measures, it is more likely that a future confrontation will be avoided. Therefore, the continued expansion of training exercises and the physical presence of NATO troops in Estonia will be crucial for its ongoing security.
Estonia’s Ethnic Russian Minority
In addition to the strategic defense role that Estonia and Russia’s proximity has played in their relations, it has also influenced the societal entanglements of the two nations. As of 2020, 24.7% of Estonia’s population is ethnically Russian, representing an important minority. 4 This historical and cultural attachment to Russia has raised internal concerns regarding the security threat posed by Estonia’s Russian-speaking population (RSP). The RSP is perceived as being inadequately integrated into Estonian society, making them vulnerable to Russian disinformation campaigns. These fears have been expressed in response to polls that indicate a discrepancy in the sentiments of Estonian-speaking and Russian- speaking Estonian citizens regarding their country’s policies. In May 2022, pollsters found that a significantly greater portion of non-Russian speaking Estonians support NATO enlargement than Russian speakers and “76% of self-identified ethnic Russians in Estonia believed Russia ‘has an obligation to protect ethnic Russians living outside of its borders.’” 5 , 6 The implication of these beliefs within Estonia is a more divided nation, susceptible to Russian soft power that undermines security. While Russian sympathizers in Estonia pose a threat to national security in part due to their susceptibility to pro-Russian propaganda, being ethnically Russian does not automatically equate to being pro-Russia or pro-Kremlin. These worries arise most with the non-integrated RSP diasporas, concentrated in specific parts of Estonia such as Narva, that have raised government concerns over their vulnerability. Further efforts to integrate the RSP into Estonia and block Russian propaganda from infiltrating will be crucial to Estonia’s security moving forward.
Hybrid and Cyber Attacks
As Estonia increasingly challenges Russia’s presence in the Baltic region through Western alliances and strengthening military capabilities, hybrid and cyber attacks are becoming more frequent and hostile. As seen in 2007 after Estonia moved the Bronze Soldier statue in Tallinn to a more remote location, Russia unleashed a large-scale cyber attack against Estonia, by infiltrating financial and government computer systems for three-weeks. 7 Additionally, accusations of Russian interference in Estonian elections have repeatedly been voiced as disinformation campaigns are led online by Russian actors and attempted election system hacks are shut down. While Estonians remain on high alert for these specific threats to their sovereignty and security, that they haven’t been eliminated. Today, after decades of work, Estonia possesses one of the best national cyber defense programs in the world and is known as the most advanced digital society. Importantly, however, Estonia’s focus is more reactive than proactive. There is a heavy emphasis on protecting its critical infrastructure and digital society from attacks, more often responding to threats as they come. Looking to the future, Estonia’s deepening investments in research and development, public awareness campaigns to counter disinformation, and international cooperation will define the success of its strong cyber defense.
Conclusion
The threat of Russia to Estonia and other Baltic states will only continue to grow as the war in Ukraine goes on and NATO continues to expand. With Estonian challenges in regional security and defense capabilities, the integration of its Russian minority, and the risk of hybrid and cyber attacks, addressing these threats requires a proactive approach. From more military preparedness, integration efforts, and strengthening cyber capabilities, Estonia’s commitment to fortifying its borders, focusing on the Russian-speaking population, and enhancing cyber defense will contribute to its future security and regional stability.
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