Deployment of North Korean troops in Ukraine: what does it tell us about the new developments of the war?
By Antoine Felitti
Situation as it is today
Early in October, president Volodimir Zelensky warned its allies that Ukrainian intelligence services had “clear data” on the presence of North Korean personnel (soldiers and workers) joining the war on the Russian side. Lieutenant General Kyrylo Budanov, at the head of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry and Directorate of Intelligence, evoked the presence of 11 thousand North Korean troops in Russia, claims rapidly backed up by South Korean spies. On Monday October 21st, during its visit to Kiev, US secretary of defense Lloyd J. Austin also announced that the US had evidence of North Korean presence in Russia and in the afternoon of Monday 28th of October, Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte officialized the presence of 10 000 North Korean troops calling North Korea to “cease these actions immediately”. In an interview on November 5th, Ukrainian defense minister Rustem Umerov declared that the first North Korean troops had already likely engaged in small-scale clashes with Ukrainian troops. Meanwhile, North Korean representatives to the United Nations deny these accusations which they qualified as “groundless stereotypes rumors”.
A further internationalization of the conflict
The new presence of North Korean troops is a testimony to the greater internationalization of the conflict. The war in Ukraine had from the start never been a solely European war but in the center of a global confrontation between great intentional blocks with each side increasingly benefitting from external support.
Ukraine is financially dependent on American aid which has already invested 175 billion dollars in the conflict and just announced 400 million more during Austin’s last meeting in Ukraine. Militarily, both countries work in concert to coordinate operations such as with the common elaboration of a “victory plan”. In addition, Ukraine is heavily supplied in weapons by the US, the Pentagon for instance recently announcing on October 16th that additional artillery ammunition, armored vehicles and a variety of anti-tank weapons would be sent to Ukraine. European countries have also been greatly supplying Ukraine, such as France who announced in June a greater involvement in the conflict promising the envoy of new fighter planes “mirage 2000” and long-range missiles to Ukraine.
On the other hand, Russia has been supplied with thermal drones, mortars, body armors, rifles purchased from China, Iran, Myanmar or India, as well as ammunition and artillery by North Korea who keeps denying any support to Russia.
Although bilateral involvement in the conflict has been increasing, it has so far only been limited to the supply of weapons, intelligence, funds and humanitarian aid. However, with the arrival of external troops a new line has been crossed in the internationalization of the war.
Today, bilateral troops are very limited as president Vladmir Putin has been particularly vocal against the presence of any NATO soldiers in Ukraine. In March, Emmanuel Macron had evoked the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine given certain circumstances, an announcement to which president Putin reacted by threatening to use the nuclear weapon if any western troops were present on the battlefield.
On the other hand, Russia has already brought foreign troops into Ukraine, as thousands of Chechen soldiers have now been fighting on the Russian side since February 2022. However, as Chechenia is today a puppet state of Russia, North Korea by sending troops of its national army becomes the first third party state to be an active combatant and belligerent in Russia's invasion of Ukraine
A future Russian offensive?
The arrival of thousands of fresh North Korean troops, suggests that Russia is possibly on the move, mobilizing as many troops as they can to launch a new offensive.
Russia is today in a delicate situation as it has failed to make significant progress since 2022, while Ukraine has recaptured 54% of occupied territory. To make the matter worse for Russia, the difficult battlefield conditions forced both sides to engage in a trench war of position with the front stabilizing itself.
However, a war of usure would be to the great disadvantage of Russia, which doesn’t have as many assets and resources as Ukraine’s allies to last on the long run. Today, Russia’s economy is in danger of overheating given its excessively high military spending while its labor force and production capacity is almost exhausted. To avoid this exact situation of a lasting and unsustainable conflict, Moscow’s strategy was thus from the very start focused on a rapid and swift conquest of Ukraine. In February 2022 Russia’s military chief Sergei Shoigu promised a quick victory in Ukraine. However, as the war is eternalizing itself, one of the best solutions for Russia today would be to break Ukrainian lines in a great offensive to win it all.
In January 2024, ended the Ukrainian attempt of a counter offensive, which resulted in an overall failure for Kiev as Russia managed to secure most of its conquests. Throughout the first half of 2024, while Ukraine was recovering from its efforts, Russia strengthened its positions opening the window for a new offensive launched in May in the region of Kharkiv.
Although Russians have been slowly pushing back Ukrainians forces from the eastern provinces, chipping away Ukrainian pockets of seized land in the western Russian Kursk region, experts foresee a much greater offensive to come. Putin has ordered the increase of the size of the Russian army aiming to mobilize as much as 1.5million soldiers, as well as engaged in the rebuilding of its military stockpiles. North Korean support, notably with troops as this war has already put 600 000 Russian troops out of combat, would thus come into play in Russia’s goal to get back on the offensive. John Kirby, White House national security spokesperson, announced that U.S. intelligence services reported that a minimum of 3000 North Korean soldiers have been moved into eastern Russia in the first half of October to undergo “basic kind of combat training". Training aiming at preparing soldiers for the combat realities of modern warfare, such as drone attacks, particularly present in Ukraine.
More than simply trained, they are to be sent to the areas where Russia began its counter offensive this spring. Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 27th that Russian forces are transferring North Korean military personnel along the E38 Kursk-Voronezh highway in vehicles with civilian license plates. This confirms that North Korean forces have already been transferred to Kursk Oblast where fights are intensifying, announcing their role in future operations to come.
What could North Korea’s motives be in intervening in the war in Ukraine?
Historically close countries, North Korean support to Russia isn’t surprising as the war has strengthened relations between the two nations given their mutual interests.
Growing relationships with Russia comes with important financial benefits for North Korea. To counter its shortage of conscripts, Russia promised to compensate North Korea, potentially with additional bonuses such as the supply of thousands of tons of rice, something significant for North Korea’s struggling economy. Furthermore, trade has intensified between the two countries, Russia purchasing military equipment and coal, allowing Pyongyong to counter UN sanctions on trade. In exchange, Russia has provided North Korea with much needed resources such as oil and gas.
Beyond finances, North Korea also benefits from its support to Russia by obtaining advanced Russian military technology such as ballistic missiles or nuclear submarine tech. A rare opportunity to acquire these Strategic technologies which are particularly difficult to develop due to international sanctions, and that North Korea has now tried to develop for years in its goals to expand its military capabilities.
Moreover, North Korea sees the conflict as an opportunity to train its troops in a modern combat scenario. North Korean troops are currently trained in Russia to master the key elements of modern warfare and their involvement in the conflict would provide them with experience manipulating advanced military weaponry. This aligns with Kim Jong-un’s interest in strengthening his armed forces in the event of an upcoming conflict as tensions are rising in the pacific region.
Finally, North Korea’s alliance with Russia is also beneficial in an opportunistic attempt to escape international isolationism as both nations share a common opposition to NATO and Western-backed initiatives. European-North Korean relations are limited, marked primarily by the EU's role in supporting UN sanctions against North Korea’s nuclear activities. Furthermore, this rapprochement with Russia in the war in Ukraine is also a way for North Korea to further oppose itself to South Korea, which has been key in providing direct humanitarian and intelligence aid to Ukraine. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova blamed South Korea for its support of Ukraine, declaring that Seoul "should not have played along with the Kyiv regime." North Korea by joining Russia thus secures an ally against South Korea as relationships between the two nations are at a new historical low point.
